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Spread Betting Football Sports Advice


Expert Money Making Systems!

THE NATION’S MOST popular sport, football offers increasing opportunities for profitable business betting.

On this page, our gambling etiquette expert guides you through some potentially lucrative business ideas on football spread betting markets.

Putting UK National Lottery aside for a moment, spread betting has been the gambling success story of the 1990s & 2000s.

And when it comes to spread betting, football is now the sport producing the highest turnover thanks to the sheer variety of markets available.

For gamblers trying to turn a profit on our national game, sorting the wheat from the chaff is essential. So, let’s look on football and, more importantly, consider some ways to make money from the best of them.

Sports Booking And Dismissals

This football season has been one market produce amazing results. Sadly, it’s one concerned with an unsavoury side of the game.

For almost every Premiership match, the spread firms produce a quote around the number of bookings and dismissals (red card football and Yellow card football that might take place.

Ten points are "awarded" for each booking and 25 are awarded for each sending off (only the dismissal counts when it comes as a result of a second bookable offence).

This football season’s soaring amount of disciplinary actions transgressions has knocked the bookies for six.

Of course, bad news for bookies means good news for punters. Some of the make-ups (the end result) in Premiership games today have been tremendously high, with buyers consequently reaping big profits.

Remember, a punter who bets that the make-up is going to be higher than the quote is a buyer, and who does the opposite is a seller. See panel below right for an explanation of how spread betting works.

The spread betting sports companies have been left with a major problem on this market.

On average, a typical set of Premiership matches produces make-ups of between 35 and 60 points (although some games have produced well over 100 points).

Because the spread firms need to produce their quotes around the average, they are exposed to any buyers lucky enough to land on a match where bookings and dismissals proliferate.

Currently, regular buyers are losing relatively little on matches where the make-up is below average, compared with the amounts they can win when the make-up is above average.

Because, here, the more points your selection wins, the more the spread-betting bookmakers has to pay out.

A good example of this occurred on Saturday October 16th. One of the top firms produced an average quote for the following three Premiership matches, Liverpool v Chelsea, Derby v Tottenham, and Arsenal v Everton, of 48-52.

Let’s look at the make-up of those three games.

Liverpool v Chelsea came in at 120, Derby v Tottenham at 50 and Arsenal v Everton at 0. Thus, a buyer of all three games would have made 14 times their money – providing, of course, the unit stakes were the same for each game.

This illustrates the problem for the spread firms. They cannot push their quotes high enough to take into account matches producing exceptionally large make-ups, for fear of sellers stepping in en-masse.

What this means to you, the punter, is that you can make good profits through buying bookings and dismissals.

In fact, around the time of the Saturday just mentioned, the quotes on bookings started to creep up, but probably not enough to prevent regular profits being reaped.

The message must therefore be for punters to look carefully at the bookings market. Take into account the referees in charge and the disciplinary records of individual teams- the Racing Post produces excellent statistics here – and you might be onto a winner.

The More Right You Are, the More You Win!

Another example... cricket is a sport ideally suited to spread betting. You can make big profits and, by taking sensible precautions, avoid any risk of losing your shirt. Here's all you need to know...

Remember, you're still going to back your opinion as to whether one team will win or lose. But rather than offering you a fixed price - say 2-1, on this and final outcome, the bookmakers quote a "spread" between two numbers instead.

You then stake a certain amount of money on each point - most usually £1, £5 or £10, depending on the size of your investment budget. High rollers often lay £100 or even £1,000 per point, and their profits (or losses) become that much larger.

The most popular spread in cricket is the number of runs scored in an innings. If the bookmakers belive, for example, that England will achieve around 230 runs in its first innings, they will quote a spread 220-240.

If you think England will score more than 240, place "buy" bet. If you think they have no hope of reaching anywhere near 220, place a "sell" bet. Let's imagine you stake £5 a point.

Should England go on to score 300, your "buy" bet will win you £300, because...
300-240 = 60 points
60 points x £5 = £300.

On the other hand, of course, a "sell" will have lost you money - in this case £400 - because...

300-220 = 80 points
80 points x £5 = £400

So with spread betting, the more correct your opinion, the more cash you win. But the further off the mark you are, the more cash you stand to lose.

Mini Performances

Another football market worth a close look is the Mini Performances. With most of the spread firms, a "miniperformance" involves points being awarded for a win or a draw, for each goal scored, and if a clean sheet is kept. Points are deducted for each booking and sending off.

There is a slight problem for buyers, however, with the deductions part of the mini-performance markets, particularly given the rush of yellow and red cards we’ve just discussed.

A chosen team could win 1-0 and thus score points for the win, the goal and the clean sheet. But they could rack up four or five bookings plus a sending off.

So the buyer could suffer a loss, despite their judgement of how their team was going to fare having been mostly correct.

There is a way around this through. One of the top spread firms, City Index, currently does not factor bookings or dismissals into their mini-performance market.

Hence, buyers will always know the maximum possible loss on their bet before placing it.

The worst that can happen to a team on City’s mini-performance index is they end up losing without scoring and thus achieve zero points.

Bearing this in mind, the mini-performances market offers excellent buying opportunities.

Take when Man City played at Man Utd earlier this season. City Index put them up with a quote of 8-10.

Man City won 1-0 that day and buyers made a 20 points profit, knowing the most they has risked was 10 times their stake.

On city’s mini–performances, its 20 points for a win, 10 points a draw and 10 points per goal, with nothing else counting.

Another excellent example of the potential on this index came on October 16 when Birmingham played at Fulham - two poor teams in Premiership terms, with Birmingham struggling to cope in the top flight.

On City’s mini-performance index, Birmingham came in at 13-16. For a buyer to make money, the London side had to either win or score two goals.

So, our recommended strategy on the mini-performance market is this. Look to buy weak teams quoted low because they face a tough match.

Often, poor sides lift their games when playing superior opponents and can thus sneak surprise results. Even if they don’t, the downside is small and is known in advance.

Remember that it’s BetHiLo sports spread betting firms or City Index you need to bet with in order to take full advantage of this market.

It Only Takes a Minute

The next market worth considering is one offered by William Hill Index. Each Saturday this firm offers a spread on how many minutes will elapse before a goal is scored in the day’s Premiership matches. The quote is normally around the 6-7 minute mark.

At first a "buy" bet would appear to be the best tactic. In other words, you believe that more than seven minutes will go by without a goal being scored.

After all, there are normally only six or seven games played in the Premiership each Saturday and seven minutes is not long into a match. But this is deceptive and a "sell" is probably the best bet.

To see why, consider the fact that six or seven Premiership matches will, on average, produce 16 to 19 goals.

Then, divide 90 minutes (remember, the games are being played simultaneously) by either 16 or 19 depending on the number of matches.

This should tell you at what interval goals are scored in the Premiership. Dividing by 16 gives a result of five-and-a-half minutes, while dividing by 19 produces a figure of just less than five.

Adjust the figures to reflect how a third more goals are scored in the second half of games and you can conclude that the first goal on a typical Premiership Saturday should go in at around the 6-7 firms come up with this quote.

It’s a quote that does reflect the event underlying it and this is good news for punters.

Why? Simply because there won’t be many occasions when the first goal takes longer, yet you have every chances of making good profits when goals are scored earlier.

Last season there were 37 days when six or more Premiership matches kicked off at the same time.

Only on four occasions was the first goal scored later than seven of those 37 days a goal went in during the first minute.

This is a fine indication of how good this market can be if bet upon consistently with long-term profits in mind.

Certainties of Life

Finally, let’s look briefly at a market that always has a large downside but can offer consistent gains. Every Saturday, Sporting Index constructs a market called Certainties.

This involves three games from each of the different leagues being selected as "good things" for one of the sides playing.

For example, in the Premiership Manchester Utd might be at home to West Ham, Arsenal at home to Wigan and Chelsea visiting Newcastle.

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On current season form, each of those top three sides would be nominated as a "good thing" to win.

Sporting Index’s market is built around awarding 50 points if all three teams win and 10 points for each side scoring four goals or more.

Subsequently, they quote a point total around this scoring system. Depending on the teams nominated, the quote can be as high as 22-24 or as low as 11-13.

A punter would then buy or sell, depending on whether they thought the three teams were all going to win.

Anyone believing all three sides are going to win would buy - and thus stand to lose the difference between the buy figure and zero if all three didn’t.

Anyone taking the opposite view would sell, but would face a considerable maximum loss of 80 points if all three won and also scored at least four goals each. This is where the bet’s large downside comes from.

However, football is often very unpredictable and since the bet has started to be offered, many punters have profited through selling.

In other words, the teams thought to be certainties frequently fail to all win, and when they do they almost never score four goals each.

So, the advice for this market must be to always consider selling. Despite the large downside, this market should produce profits in the long run.

So, that’s a look at just four of the new spread betting markets now being offered on football. As with all spread betting, approach these markets with caution.

But shrewdly used, they can offer the potential for big wins.


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